11 days ago, I published predictions for the Illawarra and Southern Highlands seats at today’s election. I haven’t changed any of the predictions but have mildly refined some of them.

So, before the numbers come rolling in, here they are:

Cunningham

The Greens George Takacs has gained good traction and the shared Greens Illawarra office in Crown Street has been well patronised. He will perform well, drawing around 10-12% of the vote. That will include a proportion of those that want to lodge a protest vote against Labor but not vote for the Liberals. The Liberal candidate Philip Clifford has been issued with the standard safe seat gag order, but will attract around 35% of the vote.

Result: ALP retain with strong margin.

Hume

Ageing Hume MP Alby Schultz is in trouble in this huge central southern NSW seat. It covers the western edges of the Southern Highlands and stretches out to Cowra in the northwest. The young ALP candidate is a strong performer who has door-knocked in most of the towns across the electorate. There are three parties with the word ‘Democrat’ in their title in this election, including Lisa Milat as the Liberal Democrat hopeful. Democrat Greg Butler has been a vocal critic of both major parties, but they have had their day and will find it hard to gain ground. A Southern Highland News exit poll in Hill Top showed 56% to Labor, 20% to the Libs and 16% for the Greens. Hill Top usually favours Labor, but the strong Green vote was surprising.

Result: Alby Schultz will lose ground but should cling to the seat for one more term.

Throsby

The Greens and Nationals candidates have performed well. Scotsman Alan Hay is confident of outpolling Liberal Juliet Arkwright in the Highlands part of the electorate, but will struggle on the coast. A Southern Highland News exit poll in Bowral showed the regular strong Liberal support, but the huge Labor margin is insurmountable for anyone but union boss and Labor pin-up boy Stephen Jones. Arkwright was also subject to a gag order from Liberal head office and may lose ground to the charismatic Hay. Sitting MP Jennie George has retired in favour of Jones and he has a 16.5% lead after the redistribution.

Result: Jones to retain for Labor, but the combination of Hay and Green Peter Moran performing well might cut the margin to around 9-12%.

Gilmore

Long-serving Liberal MP Joanna Gash has a strong personal following and the Liberal party has thrown the kitchen sink (and John Howard) at this marginal south coast seat. After the redistribution, it became notional Labor, but Neil Reilly seems to be a negative campaigner who has turned off the punters. Despite that, he might find favour through unwitting Greens voters who have been asked to direct preferences his way. The Greens decision in this seat stands in contrast to the other seats above, where the Greens have run open tickets.

Result: Very close. It will probably go to preferences, leaving Labor on top if Greens voters follow the cues.

For more reporting on of these seats, visit the Southern Highland News or the Illawarra Mercury.