A quick run-down on what I said would happen in the Illawarra and Southern Highlands seats at the election and the final outcome.

Feel free to comment and disagree if you live in any of these seats.

Cunningham

I said: “The Greens George Takacs has gained good traction and the shared Greens Illawarra office in Crown Street has been well patronised. He will perform well, drawing around 10-12% of the vote… The Liberal candidate Philip Clifford has been issued with the standard safe seat gag order, but will attract around 35% of the vote… Result: ALP retain with strong margin. 

What happened: Sharon Bird retained the seat for the ALP despite a swing of more than 7% against her on two party preferred basis. George Takacs pulled 15% of the primary vote and Clifford nearly 33%. I was pretty close in the overall analysis and the final outcome. Gotta be happy with that. Score: 9/10.

Hume

I said: “Ageing Hume MP Alby Schultz is in trouble… Result: Alby Schultz will lose ground but should cling to the seat for one more term” 

What happened: How wrong I was. Schultz’s primary vote increased to nearly 54%, giving him a two party preferred margin of nearly 18%. I was right on the outcome (Lib retain) but way wrong on the analysis. Score: 5/10.

Throsby

I said: “(National) Alan Hay is confident of outpolling Liberal Juliet Arkwright in the Highlands part of the electorate, but will struggle on the coast… the huge Labor margin is insurmountable for anyone but union boss and Labor pin-up boy Stephen Jones… Result: Jones to retain for Labor, but the combination of Hay and Green Peter Moran performing well might cut the margin to around 9-12%.

What happened: Jones suffered a 10% swing against him, and Peter Moran pulled more than 11% of the vote. Analysis was pretty close and the result was good. Score: 7/10. 

Gilmore

I said: “Long-serving Liberal MP Joanna Gash has a strong personal following and the Liberal party has thrown the kitchen sink (and John Howard) at this marginal south coast seat… Result: Very close. It will probably go to preferences, leaving Labor on top if Greens voters follow the cues.”

What happened: Jo Gash had a nice swing her way, collecting the seat with a healthy margin. Jo’s personal support won out, as did the few hundred thousands of dollars the Liberals threw at the seat. I was on the money with my overall analysis but predicting a Reilly victory cost me points. Score: 4/10.

For more reporting on these seats, visit the Southern Highland News or the Illawarra Mercury.